It’s one of those years, kids, so buckle up for some surprises on Sunday night.
BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso vs. Spike
It’s very widely assumed that Alfonso Cuaron will take home his second directing Oscar in five years for “Roma” when all is said and done, and it would be well-deserved for a visually stunning film that has heart and sentimentality to spare.
What Spike Lee—who has criminally never won a golden guy—accomplished in “BlacKkKlansman,” though, was career-high stuff: gallows humor effortlessly blended with a mash-up of narrative stylings and powerful historical homages, all leading up to the biggest gut-punch finale of any movie this year.
Unlike Alfonso, Spike had something really profound and relevant to say, which is why I think he’ll finally get his Oscar on Sunday night… for Best Adapted Screenplay. This one is Cuaron’s to lose (again).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cage Match With Two Potential Surprise Spoilers
Regina King sitting atop a mountain of early critics’ award wins (and a Golden Globe for good measure) naturally makes her the odds-on favorite here. But as much of a fan as I am, I haven’t been able to shake the feeling all season that I’ve been trying to convince myself that her performance in “If Beale Street Could Talk” is the year’s best. And with the Academy not showing big love for the movie across the board, voters would really have to take a leap put her at the podium to represent it.
As for Marina de Tavira, I think her surprise nomination for “Roma” will be considered her win, though anything is possible. And while there’s a school of thought that Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz—both balls-to-the-wall brave and brilliant in “The Favourite”—might cancel each other out, I think the latter has a real shot at scoring her second supporting statue for her wickedly layered, complex portrait of opportunistic love and manipulation in the age of Queen Anne.
However, I’m going to go out on a gold-plated limb and call this one for Amy Adams in “Vice,” who I think is going to get Renee Zellweger’d by the Academy: scoring her first win for a good-but-not-groundbreaking performance (hey-o, “Cold Mountain”) after multiple nominations as a way of honoring a still young yet accomplished career. That, coupled with the fact that the Academy digs her movie but doesn’t have another clear place to honor it, has me betting that Amy gets pushed into the winner’s circle.
BEST ACTOR: Rami vs. Bradley
Everyone has been losing oxygen to the brain all season breathlessly heralding Christian Bale’s performance in “Vice” as the second coming that’s put him on a clear path to a second Oscar win. Maybe these people were impressed at how he lent his signature ‘Batman growl’ to key ‘I’m bad and mad’ Cheney moments, or pulled from the archives to deliver gummed-up facial expressions reminiscent of psycho Patrick Bateman, but I’m not here for patchwork performances, so…. no.
That’s why I think this one comes down to Rami Malek and Bradley Cooper.
The first thing I said to my husband when we walked out of “Bohemian Rhapsody” was that I believed Rami as Freddie in every moment of the movie. And when we were leaving “A Star Is Born,” I turned to him and said that I thought Bradley’s performance was the best part of the film (right up there with ear worm -of-the-year, “Shallow”).
They both sing, struggle and die in their respective box office blockbusters, so they’re neck-and-neck on the range, sympathy and cultural impact factors that the Academy loves—basically just adding another layer of confusion to the question of which way voters will go.
But if I were ticking a box on the ballot, I’d give the edge to Rami’s indelible portrait of the Killer Queen. It’s going to be really close, though.
BEST PICTURE: %BLURG#WTF@!
Nope that isn’t a typo. It’s what this race has looked like for weeks: a mind-scrambling, prediction-defying, hard-to-read run-up to the final envelope being ripped open on Sunday night. I’ve been an awards season watcher for as long as I can remember, and I don’t ever recall this kind of uncertainty in breaking down the Best Picture race… but let’s give it a shot.
Some think “Roma” is destined for a history-making win as the category’s first foreign language film and inaugural Netflix pic to take the top spot. But I’m not convinced the Academy is ready to cross the Rubicon with such a game-changing endorsement, especially after no doubt handing it the Best Foreign Language Film award an hour before. And frankly, as high-quality as I think the movie is, I don’t feel that it’s deserving of such an epic double-down.
So, I think what’s really going to tell the tale here is the preferential ballot. Unlike other categories where voters choose just one winner, they’re asked to rank the Best Picture nominees from 1-8 in order of what they loved the most. That means broad appeal with general consensus is a big factor in what ends up winning, and the films that are ranked second and third (absent an undeniable 1998-style “Titanic”-like surge, which isn’t happening this year) often rise to the top.
If it wasn’t for the vile Bryan Singer factor, I honestly think we could see “Bohemian Rhapsody”—in all its well-crafted, money-making popular popcorn picture glory—benefit the most here, and it still could. Ditto “Green Book,” which seems to have a passionate voter base but has faced its own controversies that have dragged it down.
That said, my bet is that this boils down to a two-horse race between “BlacKkKlansman” and “The Favourite.” Both are beloved by the Academy across the board and have fresh, artful ‘movie of the moment’ takes on themes that resonate deeply despite neither being set in the present day.
I’d be happy to see either take the mantle, but I’ve personally been pulling for “BlacKkKlansman” since it grabbed me last summer with a grip that never let go.
We’ll find out soon enough, as the countdown to Sunday is officially on.