Emmys: The Supporting Actors: Drama Series

 Let’s kick off all this predictions business with a few dramatic dudes.

As I mentioned before, you heard my spiel in the video I posted and it’s true: once the nominees are set and they (and their “people” and/or the network) pick the one episode for Emmy voters to judge their past year’s performance on, I watch all of them. Yes, ALL. (Nerd alert!)

I figure, if you’re going to be an armchair awards prognosticator, you need to do your homework. Thank goodness for summer travel and all its trains, planes and subways, because that, my friends, is a lot of TV.

So, give or take seven hours later, here are some musings from the Pop gallery:

• Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey”: Oh, Mr. Carson. How can you not love a guy who, over the course of the two-hour season premiere (double the running time of competitors’ submissions), goes from running the kitchen, to turning Lady Mary out (boom!), to being the father-like shoulder she finally cries on? Rhetorical, I know, because Carter perfectly takes that classically starchy British persona and infuses it with real heart and feeling.

• Josh Charles, “The Good Wife”: Charles pretty much owns “Hitting the Fan,” the explosive insta-classic episode where he learns that Alicia is leaving to start her own firm and is poaching his clients—and the epic aftermath. Hurt and confusion morph to reveal seething anger, leading to Charles’ Will’s confrontation with Alicia and the iconic “desk swipe” scene. The anger never ends, though, and becomes a little one-note.

• Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”: Tyrion was front-and-center this season, and Dinklage had many episodes to choose from. I completely get why he (or HBO) went with “The Laws of Gods and Men,” the one with the trial, because it’s pretty much a solid 30 minutes of nearly uninterrupted drama focused on him. It isn’t until the last five minutes, though, that Dinklage lets it rip when he proclaims, “I wish I killed Joffrey… I wish I had enough poison to kill all of you!” following heartbreak after Shay’s testimony. Big impact and range, if even for a few moments.

• Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”: By far the lowest key submission of the group, the always-solid Patinkin has a good range of scenes to play in “Gerontion”—from interrogating an old friend-turned-terrorist, to attempting to reconnect with his estranged wife—but his quiet, very understated performance doesn’t carry the same gravitas as that of, say, someone playing a gun-toting meth dealer…

• Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad”: That “bitch” Jesse Pinkman got away at the end, and Paul could do the same with the Emmy for a third time for “Confessions.” His breakdown scene in the dessert with Walt and explosive gun-toting confrontation with Saul over the ricin cigarette are alternately quiet and blazing, showing the character’s descent into near madness that Paul played flawlessly.

• Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan”: Two words: Wild card. Voight’s authentic, grounded and completely convincing performance as an old Boston Irish boxer-turned-convict who nearly pays for his past sins in “Fite Nite” could come riding in on a dark horse and score an upset. It’s a layered performance that feels believably lived-in—from Voight’s physicality to his accent as Mickey—and makes the most of small, quiet moments (of which there are many given his heavy screen time). All of this, plus vet status (one word: BobHopeBlytheDannerEllenBurstyn) could get him gold.

The Breakdown: Dinklage, Paul and Voight are going to duke it out, but I just can’t shake the feeling that Voight’s seasoned boxer is going to deal an irresistible right-hook to voters.

So, do you think the spirited vet is going to KO the other guys? Next up: The Supporting Actors: Comedy Series