Because making predictions is a fool’s game.
****
MY CRYSTAL BALL IS CRACKED, SO I’M GOING WITH MY GUT: When it comes to the Emmys, all the precursor awards, historical stats, ‘blind item’ voter ballots, and ‘X factors’ that go into informing where my fellow pop culture watchers place their bets have proven to be as unreliable as the early polling data from Michigan and Wisconsin last November.
Really, it all just comes down to what voters liked best. And with this year’s change in the rules, it’s true now more than ever.
So, I’m picking the one nominee in each category that I would vote for if I had a ballot, plus a back-up, because it was thisclose in almost every category. Let the countdown to the big show begin!
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul
House of Cards
Stranger Things
The Crown
The Handmaid’s Tale
This Is Us
Westworld
MY PICK: This Is Us
I feel that a drama series should move you, and none made me feel more this past season than This Is Us. The whole of the show is much greater than its already solid parts, achieving something both familiar and fresh every week.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: The Handmaid’s Tale
It was incredibly difficult to watch at times, which is why it’s my back-up rather than my first pick. With spectacular production values, the show is high art that forced a necessary discomfort through challenging storytelling, and was great at every turn.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
Atlanta
black-ish
Master of None
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep
MY PICK: Atlanta
Alternately searing and satirical, there’s no other show I binged faster last year and still think about all the time. Excellently realized ‘reality’ comedy.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Veep
Because it’s awesome, and will probably win anyway.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us
Anthony Hopkins, Westworld
MY PICK: Anthony Hopkins, Westworld
Watching Hopkins deliver a monologue in close-up is the stuff that acting master classes are made of. His work in the show’s first season is undeniably excellent.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Arguably the center of an already accomplished ensemble, Brown brought showy pathos to his just-about-to-crack characterization, making Randall’s ultimate breakdown all the more affective.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Keri Russell, The Americans
Claire Foy, The Crown
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
MY PICK: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
I can’t think of another performance this year that comes close, in any category. And after seven losses—six for Mad Men, and one for the first run of Top of the Lake—Moss is way overdue.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Kerri Russell, The Americans
Russell is stoically intriguing and utterly badass week after week, adding complex layers to Elizabeth as we got a glimpse at what’s beneath her cool spy surface.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
David Harbour, Stranger Things
John Lithgow, The Crown
Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld
MY PICK: John Lithgow, The Crown
He’s the best thing about The Crown, and his episode submission—in which Churchill faces past personal tragedies while sitting for a portrait—was bonkers-level good.
THE BACK-UP: David Harbour, Stranger Things
Harbour is the voice of reason and conscience in a truly sci-fi world, a challenging role in which he anchors his show in a certain reality that took me along for a believable ride.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things
Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld
MY PICK: Thandie Newton, Westworld
Easily my favorite part of Westworld, Newton steered Maeve through the stages of rage-fueled self(?)-realization like a force of nature. No contest.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
One of TV’s new MVPs as evidenced by her dual nominations this year (the other for her guest-starring role on The Leftovers), Dowd conveys the empathy that bubbles beneath her character’s adherence to her position with layered subtext to spare.
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Zach Galifianakis, Baskets
Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
William H. Macy, Shameless
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
MY PICK: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
He had much less to do in what was a sub-par season for the show (it was left off the Best Comedy Series short list for the first time since its premiere), but Tambor delivered where and when it counted.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Donald Glover, Atlanta
Though I think the Academy will find other places to honor his work, Glover’s performance was the solid center of a world few of us know but all feel closer to after living with his character’s struggle and inner conflict as he strived to be more.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Pamela Adlon, Better Things
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie
Allison Janney, Mom
Ellie Kemper, The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
MY PICK: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
I mean, obviously.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Pamela Adlon, Better Things
The next best thing to JLD, I absolutely love Adlon’s richly lived-in performance. Simple yet complex in every nuanced moment.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Louie Anderson, Baskets
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live
Tituss Burgess, The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tony Hale, Veep
Matt Walsh, Veep
MY PICK: Louie Anderson, Baskets
Last year’s winner, I think Anderson should repeat for an inventive performance that emotionally grounds his gender-swapping role as a doting, busy body mother.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live
He captured the zeitgeist in a bottle, absolutely nailing his iconic Trump impression while adding invaluable support across the board in his hosting outing last season.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Vanessa Bayer, Saturday Night Live
Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Kathryn Hahn, Transparent
Judith Light, Transparent
Ann Chlumsky, Veep
MY PICK: Judith Light, Transparent
I know, I know: Kate McKinnon is the one to beat here. And she’s absolutely deserving. But I remember watching Light’s submission the first time, ending with her empowered rendition of One Hand In My Pocket, and thinking that she should win an Emmy for it. And I still do.
BUT I WOULDN’T BE BUMMED IF IT WENT TO: Kathryn Hahn, Transparent
Excellent both here and in I Love Dick this past season, Hahn’s character finally boils over in an epic meltdown that, again, had me thinking Emmy since the first time I saw it.